What will the package cost to finish?
Revise a finish forecast when the observed production rate falls.
The question
You prepare a package forecast for a building project in Canada. The project manager wants the expected finish cost and its difference from the approved budget. The forecast records use Canadian dollars.
| Amount (C$) | |
|---|---|
| Approved budget | 420000 |
| Posted cost | 190000 |
| Received, not yet posted | 20000 |
| Future committed work | 130000 |
| Uncommitted remaining work | 65000 |
Future committed work excludes all received work. The forecast categories have no overlap.
| Planning value | |
|---|---|
| Remaining units | 120 |
| Units per crew-day | 12 |
| Cost per crew-day (C$) | 4800 |
The crew estimate is already included in the C$65,000. The daily cost is constant in this exercise.
“Give the forecast and explain which assumption changes it.”
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A strong answer, step by step
Open each step in turn. This is one strong answer, not the only one.
Step 1: Check which costs are included
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Use the four cost categories and compare them with the approved budget.
The strong move. Received work belongs in the forecast before its invoice appears. The future committed amount excludes that work.
Skip the C$20,000 until Finance posts it.
Tempting, but it misses something. The project has already received that work. Omitting it understates forecast cost.
See how a strong candidate says it
“I’d add posted, received but unposted, future committed and uncommitted cost. I would include each item once.”
Why it works: Received work belongs in the forecast before its invoice appears. The future committed amount excludes that work.
Step 2: Give the starting forecast
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Use C$405,000 and note the ten crew-days inside it.
The strong move. The four categories account for the work already incurred and the work still to do.
Add ten crew-days at C$4,800 to the C$405,000.
Tempting, but it misses something. The C$65,000 uncommitted estimate already includes the ten crew-days.
See how a strong candidate says it
“The forecast is C$405,000, or C$15,000 below budget. At 12 units per crew-day, the remaining 120 units need 10 crew-days. Those days are already in the uncommitted estimate.”
Why it works: The four categories account for the work already incurred and the work still to do.
Step 3: Revise the crew estimate
A verified record from comparable work shows the same crew produced 24 units in 3 crew-days at the same daily cost. Use that rate for the remaining 120 units.
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Add the cost of five extra days and report C$9,000 over budget.
The strong move. The five extra crew-days replace the earlier rate assumption without counting the original ten twice.
Add the full cost of all 15 crew-days to the original forecast.
Tempting, but it misses something. The original forecast already includes ten crew-days. Only the five-day increase belongs in the change.
See how a strong candidate says it
“The checked rate is 8 units per crew-day. The remaining work needs 15 days, five more than planned. The extra C$24,000 brings the forecast to C$429,000, or C$9,000 over budget.”
Why it works: The five extra crew-days replace the earlier rate assumption without counting the original ten twice.
Step 4: Explain the variance
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Report the forecast, the rate evidence and the checks still open.
The strong move. The forecast can change while the approved budget stays the comparison. Crew-days alone do not give the milestone date.
Raise the approved budget to C$429,000 so the package is on budget.
Tempting, but it misses something. The exercise gives no budget approval. Resetting the comparison would hide the variance.
See how a strong candidate says it
“I’d give the project manager C$429,000 against the C$420,000 budget, with the production record behind the C$24,000 increase. I’d ask the superintendent to confirm whether the new rate will hold and the scheduler to check the finish date.”
Why it works: The forecast can change while the approved budget stays the comparison. Crew-days alone do not give the milestone date.
The answer, in short
- Decision
- Forecast C$429,000, or C$9,000 over the approved budget.
- Because
- At 8 units per crew-day, the package needs 15 days. The previous forecast already covers ten.
- What would change it
- New production evidence or a change to the remaining quantity changes the forecast.
Common traps
- Leaving received costs out before they post.
- Counting the original crew estimate twice.
- Equating crew-days with a project finish delay.
Check your answer
- I counted each cost once.
- I calculated the observed production rate.
- I added only the five extra crew-days.
- I reported the forecast against the approved budget.
Last reviewed Nov 11, 2026